Almost
every nation has minority groups, religious plurality,
and ideological divisions, but not all plunge
into civil war. Sociologists have long searched
for what variables trigger civil wars. In the
modern world most civil wars occur in nations
that are poor, autocratic, and regionally divided.
However, the United States was one of the wealthiest
and most democratic countries in the world at
the time of its bloody civil war. Some models
to explain the occurrence of civil wars stress
the importance of change and transition. According
to one such line of reasoning, the American Civil
War was caused by the growing economic power of
the North relative to the South; the Lebanese
Civil War by the upsetting of the delicate demographic
balance by the increase in the Shi'ite population;
the English Civil War by the growing power of
the middle class and merchants at the expense
of the aristocracy.
Competition for resources and wealth within
a society is seen as a frequent cause for civil
wars, however economic gain is rarely the justification
espoused by the participants. Marxist historians
stress economic and class factors arguing that
civil wars are caused by imperialist rulers
battling each other for greater power, and using
tools such as nationalism and religion to delude
people into joining them. Also, recent evidence
proved that the violence observed in civil war
can come from spurious reasons. Not only are
the causes of civil wars widely studied and
debated, but their persistence is also seen
as an important issue. Many civil wars have
proved especially intractable, dragging on for
many decades. One contributing factor is that
civil wars often become proxy wars for outside
powers that fund their partisans and thus encourage
further violence.
Research related to the democratic war theory
have studied civil wars and democracy. Research
shows that the most democratic and the most
authoritarian states have few civil wars, and
intermediate regimes the most. The probability
for a civil war is also increased by political
change, regardless whether toward greater democracy
or greater autocracy. Intermediate regimes continue
to be the most prone to civil war, regardless
of the time since the political change. In the
long run, since intermediate regimes are less
stable than autocracies, which in turn are less
stable than democracies, durable democracy is
the most probable end-point of the process of
democratization. The fall of Communism and the
increase in the number of democratic states
were accompanied by a sudden and dramatic decline
in total warfare, interstate wars, ethnic wars,
revolutionary wars, and the number of refugees
and displaced persons.
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